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Introduction

L’quantitative analysis of risks, Note as QSRA (Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis), Today it represents an indispensable approach in the project control.

The purpose of this article is to provide an introductory overview of the methodology Rashra (Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis), highlighting its conceptual foundations e, above all, The advantages it can offer in the effective management of projects. In a subsequent contribution I will face the technical aspects more in detail, including application software, indispensable tools to correctly implement a QSRA in real contexts.

In construction projects, The types of risk are largely known and documented thanks to the accumulated experience. The problem is therefore not so much the uncertainty linked to unpredictable events, but rather the lack of robust methodological approaches during the planning phase.

To understand its operational impact, It is necessary to focus briefly on the structure of the risk management process.

The Risk Management process

Risk management is an articulated process that develops in two main phases:

1. Risk analysis
2. Risks

Specifically, The analysis includes:

• The identification and mapping of risks
• the definition of the metric to be used
• the assessment and classification of risks according to a risk index

To follow, The phase of risk treatment implies the identification of the actions to be taken for each significant risk. The analysis of the risks and mitigation interventions of the same, or those of exploitation of opportunities, allows a more accurate evaluation of contingency e, ultimately, The definition of the project budget. It is understood how risk management is not an accessory activity, but an integral part of the Project planning.

The limits of the traditional appriculty merely qualitative

The traditional approach provides for a risk plan built around the Risk Register, more or less complex, which collects a series of information.

Each risk should be represented by an appropriate risk index (given by the probability of occurrence multiplied by the degree of impact). Other information concern the risk/opportunity treatment options with mitigation or facilitation actions, the expected effect and the implementation of the specific action. An articulated Risk Register can contain many additional fields. The following scheme is that of simple Risk Register.

A well -built Risk Register is certainly a useful tool, Since it allows you to centralize all information relating to the risk management process in a single support. However, It has two fundamental limits:

• does not allow to effectively connect the risks to the project plan (and in particular to the time program);
• does not provide an objective quantification of the impact, for example in terms of days late on a milestone, nor a quantitative probabilistic evaluation.[1]

This deficiency prevents the consequences of the risks on the temporal program concretely, compromising the effectiveness of the analysis and risk assessment (and opportunities), As well as contingency values ​​to deal with the mitigation and containment of risks or exploitation of opportunities.

[1] In international orders, it is consolidated practice that, already under planning, The contractor should develop a project program in accordance with stringent contractual requirements. Among these, The obligation to demonstrate - through quantitative analyzes - the ability of the plan to reach specific milestone with a pre -established probabilistic confidence level is frequent (es. P80 or P90). These requirements highlight how, For contractual purposes, A structured integration between risk analysis and time program is essential.

Because a quantitative analysis of risks is needed

Exceeded the limits of the traditional approach, the need to adopt one emerges clearly quantitative analysis of risks.
The mere identification of risks - at least in the projects that make use of previous consolidated experiences - is relatively simple. Much more complex is to estimate The concrete effects on temporal activities and objectives of the project plan.

QSRA offers a decisive advantage: allows an assessment of the measurable impact. Allows, for example, to answer crucial questions like:

• How many days late could generate a specific risk on a Milestone?
• What time impact can have the delay in delivery of a critical equipment?

Unlike the qualitative approach, La Qsra correlates directly to risks and uncertainties to the project execution plan, making the assessments more objective and usable.

Many projects, Although well structured on paper, undergo slips and additional costs compared to the initial baseline. The causes are often attributable to:

• Too optimistic estimates
• Risk underestimation
• unexpected events
• or an inadequate management of uncertainty

To deal with all this, serve a system of control control effective and integrated that supports the management of the project in the planning phase (planning) and in that of execution.

A. In the planning phase, It Project Control DEVE:

• build the baseline taking into account the analysis of risks and opportunities, consistently defining the reserves to be integrated into the project budget
• develop the project plan considering Alternative scenarios, in order to correctly reflect the identified uncertainties and risks

B. In the execution phase, must be able to:

• detect promptly deviations compared to times and costs;
• predict with realism the evolution of the project in terms of duration, Resources and Milestone Future.

In this context, QSRA provides a crucial contribution, so long as:

• quantification, through probabilistic models, The effects of risks
• improves the forecasting capacity, making the key dates more reliable
• strengthens the awareness of the team Compared to the risk margins to be monitored
• consolidate the trust of the stakeholders, offering a vision based on data and simulations instead of simple opinions.

Quantitative analysis vs qualitative: the paradigm change

A further distinctive benefit of’ Quantitative analysis of the risks compared to the simple qualitative analysis concerns the most accurate definition of the contingency reserves.

Without a quantitative analysis, The reserves included in the budget are arbitrary, being able to be oversized or undersized, or, worse, completely absent. In essence they are not summarized for manage identified risks or opportunities, ma, rather a generic residual ignorance shock absorber on risks and opportunities.

On the contrary, The QSRA allows you to size the reserves on the basis of:

• numerical simulations
• probabilistic scenarios
• Association of reserves to specific portions of the project

Contingency becomes like this a strategic tool, not just accounting, capable of:

• protect the project from adverse events
• guarantee the competitiveness of the offer
• preserve the overall economic balance.

Bases of the QSRA methodology

The QSRA is based on a project program scheduled with technique CPM (Critical Path Method) which represents the model on which to apply the Monte Carlo simulation. This allows you to:

• estimate the probability of achieving the Milestone
• obtain a probabilistic range for the completion date
• evaluate the combined effects of risks and uncertainties

The Quality of CPM logic it is fundamental: An incomplete program, with excessive constraints or non -representative paths, compromises the effectiveness of the analysis. Furthermore, The quality of the WBS (Work Breakdown Structure) it is equally decisive, Since it allows you to assign probability distributions to whole working packages, favoring a modeling more adherent to the operational reality of the project.

Scenarios analysis and initial planning support

One of the most relevant advantages of QSRA is the possibility of carrying out An analysis of the scenarios even before starting the project. Through the Monte Carlo simulation, It is possible to test numerous combinations of events, unknowns and operational sequences. The analysis of each scenario, accompanied by specific outputs in terms of times and costs, represents a great source of knowledge of the project.

The comparative analysis of the different scenarios, also in function of the different options that will want to evaluate themselves, creates and increases the knowledge basis of the entire project and allows, if conducted through brainstorming sessions, A precious opportunity for the alignment between stakeholders, In addition to the project team, facilitating the subsequent activity of the Project Manager.

This approach allows you to:

• identify the critical points of the program more in advance
• evaluate the aggregate impact of risks groups on key milestone
• optimize the sequence of activities, where criticality or redundancies emerge
• Improve the realism of the project plan and strengthen customer trust

Professional software (as at example Acumen Risk, Safran) support both quantitative and qualitative analysis, offering diagnostic tools to improve the robustness of the program.

In other words, The QSRA does not just measure the risks, But it actively contributes to the construction of a more solid and credible plan. It is a precious tool in the phases of definition of the baseline, contractual negotiation and construction of the initial budget.

Organizational culture and strategic implications

The full adoption of the QSRA requires a cultural change. It is not just a technique, but of an approach that implies:

• A complete and coherent WBS
• A robust and representative CPM network
• a governance of explicit risk supported by the top management

In many organizations, Risk management remains a marginal or documentary function. Integrating the QSRA into the decision -making process means transforming the risk management in a strategic lever.

Conclusions

The qualitative analysis is useful for the initial classification of risks, but it does not provide sufficient information to make operational decisions.

La Qsra, Instead:

• moves the focus with perceived risk to measurable risk
• integrates risks and uncertainties in temporal planning
• supports a proactive and data-driven approach
• improves communication with stakeholders and clients

QSRA is today a fundamental tool to deal with the complexity of the projects methodically. If used correctly:

• improves the forecast
• supports corrective action
• favors a proactive management of the project
• increases operational resilience

In summary, QSRA brings three key benefits:

1. Forecast reliability, thanks to the possibility of assigning realistic probability to respect the deadlines
2. Integration between risk and planning, through the direct association between Risk Register and works program
3. Strategic alignment of the team, which operates on a shared plane, realistic and based on quantitative simulations

Ultimately, QSRA allows you to move from the risk perceived to a quantitative assessment, based on measurable metrics and simulations. This ability to transform uncertainty into operational knowledge makes it an indispensable component of any modern project control system.

QSRA therefore represents an evolutionary passage in Risk Management methodologies: From a risk management to watertight compartments, with a necessarily short -sighted vision, to a more articulated assessment of risks and opportunities, compared to the entire life cycle of the project, with focus on impacts, allowing full integration between risk, Planning and control.

It is not just an advanced methodology: is an organizational qualification, a tool for management maturity. In a context in which the uncertainty is systemic, QSRA is not an optional choice, but a crucial competence to guide the projects towards a solid and sustainable success.

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